Investors hoping for a quiet summer have instead been reminded that markets and geopolitics rarely take a vacation. The Middle East conflict has re-escalated, semiconductor stocks have wobbled, and high-profile IPOs have slipped below their IPO prices. In our view, this is typical summer volatility. Especially in July, the Iran conflict continued to roil markets. […]
The U.S. and Iran finally reached an agreement, opening the door to an end to hostilities. It is only a memorandum of understanding that leaves many sticky elements for subsequent negotiation and could possibly be derailed on several counts. Its 60-day settlement target is ambitious given the importance of the issues that have kept the […]
Global equity markets continued to move higher in the past month, as very strong corporate earnings are the overriding theme in equity markets right now, which continues to outweigh any geopolitical or macro-economic uncertainty. Oil prices and bond yields are declining on hopes that the U.S. and Iran have reached a preliminary framework for opening […]
There is an old saying on Wall Street that stocks take the stairs up and the elevator down. In the last ten weeks, we have seen the opposite pattern: Stocks slowly declined as oil prices rose, but then ripped higher on hopes that the Hormuz Crisis is coming to an end. Even the recent flare-up […]
The fog of war remains thick, which makes any analysis of the ongoing Strait of Hormuz Crisis difficult. Both sides keep threatening each other, only to retreat afterward. President Trump offered to de-escalate the conflict in the Middle East after saying that regime change had already been achieved, that negotiations with Tehran were progressing, and […]
Financial markets continue to show remarkable resilience. Global equities are trading close to all‑time highs, even as investors navigate a complex mix of geopolitical tension, shifting economic momentum, and policy uncertainty. While this may appear surprising at first glance, the underlying picture is more balanced than headline levels suggest, as beneath the surface, leadership has […]
Europe is in a geopolitical sweet spot. Exaggerated fears of Russian military aggression and abandonment by the United States, as well as increased competition from China, created a geopolitical urgency to stimulate, reflate, and reform. Signs suggest that Europe is unifying and making serious investments in its future, led by Germany. A political and economic […]
2025 was a year of significant market volatility, primarily driven by U.S. trade tariffs and shifting policy landscapes. Despite these challenges, global equities advanced 20% in U.S. dollar terms but much less in other currencies, as the dollar weakened significantly. Notably, equity market leadership rotated away from the U.S., with countries such as South Korea, […]
What is a K-Shaped Economy? Recently, many news reports have mentioned a so-called K-shaped economy in the U.S. This basically means that we are currently seeing an interesting and unusual divergence between strong economic growth and a weak job market. U.S. economic growth remains very strong, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow measure forecasting a current […]
Renewed trade tensions with China and then a trade truce, an extended U.S. government shutdown, a Fed meeting without employment data, new Russian sanctions, and no end in sight for the Ukraine war, demolition of part of the White House without a planning permit, nothing seems to bother the equity investors, as the market continues […]
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